1422号台风“黑格比”官方机构预报帖

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-12-2 10:10

1422号台风“黑格比”已于12月1日下午获得命名，目前在菲律宾以东洋面活动。此台风多半是小雪节气的最后一个台风，也是今年风季最后一个有较大概率冲击台风以上强度的热带气旋

现在开帖对各家官方机构的预报进行转发

** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  020000UTC 05.9N 147.2E FAIR
MOVE  W 18KT
PRES  998HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  120NM
FORECAST
24HF  030000UTC 07.4N 141.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 16KT
PRES  990HPA
MXWD  045KT
GUST  065KT
48HF  040000UTC 09.4N 134.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 16KT
PRES  985HPA
MXWD  050KT
GUST  070KT
72HF  050000UTC 10.7N 129.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE  W 13KT
PRES  975HPA
MXWD  060KT
GUST  085KT =

** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS HAGUPIT 1422 (1422) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC
00HR 6.0N 147.1E 990HPA 23M/S
30KTS WINDS 260KM NORTHEAST
210KM SOUTHEAST
210KM SOUTHWEST
250KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 28KM/H
P+12HR 6.7N  144.6E  982HPA  28M/S
P+24HR 7.9N 141.6E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 9.1N  138.1E  965HPA  38M/S
P+48HR 10.0N 135.2E 950HPA 45M/S
P+60HR 11.1N  132.2E  940HPA  50M/S
P+72HR 11.6N 130.3E 920HPA 60M/S
P+96HR 11.2N 128.1E 920HPA 60M/S
P+120HR 10.3N 125.5E 930HPA 55M/S=

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-12-3 16:19

** WTPQ20 RJTD 030600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  030600UTC 08.2N 138.6E FAIR
MOVE  WNW 18KT
PRES  955HPA
MXWD  075KT
GUST  105KT
50KT  70NM
30KT  210NM
FORECAST
24HF  040600UTC 10.2N 132.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 16KT
PRES  935HPA
MXWD  085KT
GUST  120KT
48HF  050600UTC 10.9N 129.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  930HPA
MXWD  090KT
GUST  130KT
72HF  060600UTC 10.9N 126.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE  W 06KT
PRES  940HPA
MXWD  085KT
GUST  120KT =

** WTPQ20 BABJ 030600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY HAGUPIT 1422 (1422) INITIAL TIME 030600 UTC
00HR 8.3N 138.5E 955HPA 42M/S
30KTS WINDS 300KM NORTHEAST
220KM SOUTHEAST
230KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS  WINDS 110KM NORTHEAST
90KM SOUTHEAST
90KM SOUTHWEST
110KM NORTHWEST
64KTS  WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
50KM SOUTHEAST
50KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 31KM/H
P+12HR 9.7N  135.4E  940HPA  50M/S
P+24HR 10.8N 132.3E 930HPA 55M/S
P+36HR 11.5N  130.4E  925HPA  58M/S
P+48HR 11.3N 128.2E 920HPA 60M/S
P+60HR 11.1N  127.1E  920HPA  60M/S
P+72HR 10.9N 125.6E 925HPA 58M/S
P+96HR 10.3N 122.9E 940HPA 50M/S
P+120HR 11.1N 120.7E 950HPA 45M/S=

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-12-4 05:21

本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-12-4 05:22 编辑

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, ALSO SEEN IN A
031758Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOST RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGE DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130 KNOTS DESPITE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STY 22W REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BY TAU 48, EXPECT THE SUPER
TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
EXPECT FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 160 KTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. OPPOSING THAT, THE
ECMF TRACKER HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE TRACK OF HAGUPIT. THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION HAS BEEN SHIFTING BETWEEN THE TWO PREVIOUS
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. WITH THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING WELL ABOVE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE. THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE
STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE
IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO, WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY
RECURVING EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN

diva49 · 发表于 2014-12-4 14:17

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (SMI)
DEPICTS VERY TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A 20NM EYE
FEATURE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND
AFOREMENTIONED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 155 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BY PGTW AND
NSOF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 22W
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STY HAGUPIT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY HAGUPIT WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THOUGH TAU 48. EXPECT
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH CONTINUALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY FURTHER
INTENSIFY, TO A PEAK OF 170 KNOTS DURING THIS PERIOD. BY TAU 72,
EXPECT THE SUPER TYPHOON TO SLOW DOWN AS A SMALL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CREATES A SMALL WEAKNESS IN
THE STR ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND COAMPS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING POLEWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU
120 BEFORE SLIGHTLY TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE THROUGH THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE ECMF AND NOW THE
GFDN TRACKER, HOWEVER, HAS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST INTO
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES INDICATING THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS NOT
PRONOUNCED ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF STY
HAGUPIT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ENCOMPASSES ELEMENTS OF BOTH OF
THESE SCENARIOS. UNDERSTANDING THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WELL ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS INCREASING IN SIZE,
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO TURN
POLEWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR THOUGH TAU 96. HOWEVER, BEYOND
THAT, THE ELONGATED STR IN COMBINATION WITH THE SURFACE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL CONTRIBUTE IN PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A
WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LUZON. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN
THE MODELS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ALTERNATE FORECAST SCENARIO,
WITH THE SYSTEM EITHER SIGNIFICANTLY RECURVING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OR TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN

diva49 · 发表于 2014-12-4 14:18

台風第22号 (ハグピート)
平成26年12月04日12時45分発表

<04日12時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
中心位置北緯 10度10分(10.2度)
東経 133度05分(133.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 30km/h(16kt)
中心気圧 910hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域全域 150km(80NM)
15m/s以上の強風域北側 440km(240NM)
南側 390km(210NM)

<05日00時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 10度50分(10.8度)
東経 131度05分(131.1度)
進行方向、速さ西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 910hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)
暴風警戒域全域 240km(130NM)

<05日12時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 10度55分(10.9度)
東経 129度25分(129.4度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 130km(70NM)
暴風警戒域全域 300km(160NM)

<06日09時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 10度55分(10.9度)
東経 127度20分(127.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 905hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(110kt)
最大瞬間風速 80m/s(155kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)
暴風警戒域全域 370km(200NM)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピン
予報円の中心北緯 10度50分(10.8度)
東経 125度00分(125.0度)
進行方向、速さ西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 910hPa
中心付近の最大風速 55m/s(105kt)
最大瞬間風速 75m/s(150kt)
予報円の半径 300km(160NM)
暴風警戒域全域 440km(240NM)

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-12-4 19:27

本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-12-4 20:26 编辑

** WTPQ20 RJTD 040600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TY 1422 HAGUPIT (1422)
ANALYSIS
PSTN  040600UTC 10.4N 132.4E GOOD
MOVE  WNW 15KT
PRES  905HPA
MXWD  115KT
GUST  165KT
50KT  80NM
30KT  240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF  050600UTC 11.1N 129.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE  W 08KT
PRES  900HPA
MXWD  120KT
GUST  170KT
48HF  060600UTC 11.1N 126.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  905HPA
MXWD  115KT
GUST  165KT
72HF  070600UTC 11.0N 124.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE  W SLOWLY
PRES  910HPA
MXWD  110KT
GUST  155KT =

diva49 · 发表于 2014-12-11 11:42

台風第22号 (ハグピート)
平成26年12月11日09時45分発表

<11日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
中心位置北緯 13度35分(13.6度)
東経 114度20分(114.3度)
進行方向、速さ西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域全域 220km(120NM)

<11日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域南シナ海
予報円の中心北緯 12度50分(12.8度)
東経 111度35分(111.6度)
進行方向、速さ西南西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 90km(50NM)

<12日09時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域ベトナム
予報円の中心北緯 11度35分(11.6度)
東経 108度55分(108.9度)
進行方向、速さ西南西 25km/h(14kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
予報円の半径 160km(85NM)

diva49 · 发表于 2014-12-11 11:42

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (HAGUPIT) WARNING
NR 41//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SMALL CONVECTIVE
CELL OVER A NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED
SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD. A 102101Z SSMIS 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THIS
DISPLACEMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO BE APPROXIMATELY 80 NM. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI AND THE PGTW FIX WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS AS
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS
22W STILL HAS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS NOT
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS LOW LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOW COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL. TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO MORE STABLE AIR
AND CONTINUED VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. TS 22W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM BEFORE TAU 24 AND
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION, EXCEPT FOR HWRF
WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY, OVER-WATER TRACK. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTION DENOTES LANDFALL, HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF THE MEMBERS
REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TS 22W COULD SKIRT THE VIETNAMESE
COAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIOR FORECAST.//
NNNN

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[官方预报] 1422号台风“黑格比”官方机构预报帖