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发表于 2014-10-12 09:57
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WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 32 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DIMINISHED AND AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME RAGGED. THE RADAR ANIMATION FROM JMA
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED
TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME ELONGATED. DUE TO THE RAGGED ORGANIZATION
OF THE LLCC, NOW THERE IS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77 KNOTS, AN
111315Z ASCAT PASS (WHICH SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC) AND IS SUPPORTED BY
DECREASING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OKINAWA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
ALONG WITH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEGRADING
ENVIRONMENT AS STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 19W IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER
WHICH, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS
EASTERN CHINA, IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST AND RE-ORIENT THE STR.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN.
AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES AND BECOMES FURTHER EMBEDDED INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BROADEN AND GAIN FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR
TAU 36. DUE TO THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
EXPECTED ETT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY WEAKEN AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MIGRATE FROM THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM INTO THE DEVELOPING FRONTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A GALE FORCE, MID-LATITUDE LOW BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN AND FURTHER ON INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE FORECAST SCENARIO, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
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发表于 2014-10-9 10:43
