1409号台风(威马逊)官方机构报文专帖

yz0330

JTWC于2014年7月10日15UTC（北京时23时）将远洋的热带扰动升格为09W，预计将在数日内发展为今年第9号（1409号）台风威马逊。

现开帖转发各官方机构对此热带气旋系统的预报报文和图片

WTPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 10.8N 150.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 150.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 11.9N 149.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.8N 147.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 13.4N 145.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 13.7N 142.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 14.1N 138.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 14.4N 134.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 15.8N 130.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 150.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND
111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

将臣

JTWC 第1报 的预测分析报文，注意：这是预测信心偏低的第一报


WDPN32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM OBSCURING A RAPIDLY-
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101152Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND ABOVE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, ONE
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIGDE (STR) ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THE STR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
MIDLATUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA NEAR TAU 72. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATUDE TROUGH INFLUENCES THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
CAUSING THE DISTURBANCE TO RECURVE AFTER TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODELS DEVELOP
THIS DISTURBANCE IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING
GFS. SINCE THIS IS A COMPACT SYSTEM, THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS
MIGHT NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM CORRECTLY. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.//
NNNN

海绵宝宝

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW: ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES AT 05-10 KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE A FULL-FLEDGED
TYPHOON AT 75 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 09W WILL REACH AN EVEN WARMER POOL OF WATER
(32 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE  A STRONG TYPHOON AT 95 KNOTS. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE AND
COMPACT NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, AN ERRATIC STORM MOTION MAY OCCUR
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

sylar

熱帯低気圧
平成26年07月11日07時15分 発表

<11日06時の実況>
大きさ	-
強さ	-
	熱帯低気圧
存在地域	マリアナ諸島
中心位置	北緯 11度40分(11.7度)
	東経 148度30分(148.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速	15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速	23m/s(45kt)
<12日06時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心	北緯 12度40分(12.7度)
	東経 145度05分(145.1度)
進行方向、速さ	西北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	998hPa
中心付近の最大風速	18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速	25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径	220km(120NM)

将臣

JTWC 第2报

预测分析报文：

WDPN32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AS
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CLOUD COVER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW: ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
VALUES AT 05-10 KNOTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE EXTENDED FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN RAISED
SIGNIFICANTLY, OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BE A FULL-FLEDGED
TYPHOON AT 75 KNOTS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 09W WILL REACH AN EVEN WARMER POOL OF WATER
(32 DEGREES CELSIUS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
SUSTAINED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BE  A STRONG TYPHOON AT 95 KNOTS. THE LIMITED AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE AND
COMPACT NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, AN ERRATIC STORM MOTION MAY OCCUR
DURING THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

yz0330

00UTC未命名
   
** WTPQ21 RJTD 110000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  110000UTC 12.0N 148.3E POOR
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  120000UTC 12.7N 144.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  998HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =

yz0330

WTPN32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 003   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110000Z --- NEAR 12.0N 148.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 148.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 12.9N 146.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 13.7N 143.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 14.0N 141.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   130000Z --- 14.2N 139.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 14.8N 133.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   150000Z --- 15.4N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 16.8N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 147.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 08W (NEOGURI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

yz0330

06UTC不命名

** WTPQ21 RJTD 110600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  110600UTC 12.2N 147.3E POOR
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  120600UTC 12.8N 143.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE  W 09KT
PRES  998HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =

yz0330

09Z的REASONING
   
PS.估计因为要袭击关岛，所以JTWC迅速升格
   
WDPN32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 110454Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SSMI IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. HOWEVER, TRACK SPEEDS IN THE
JTWC FORECAST HAVE SLIGHTLY DECREASED AS MULTIPLE CONSENSUS (CONW)
MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED AND ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK SOLUTIONS.
   B. TS 09W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   C. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE SST AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEEDS UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

将臣

JTWC 第5报，依然说明预测信心不足。

预测分析报文：

WDPN32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (NINE) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
SURROUNDING A SMALL, TIGHTLY COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 111132Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONSOLIDATED
STRUCTURE OF THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING
TO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION
AND ABOVE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE ASSESSMENT FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. HOWEVER,
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED DUE TO THE SLOW
ORGANIZATION AND AN OVERALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE AID INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND STRONG
OUTFLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH AT TAU 36.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DIG IN FROM EASTERN CHINA AND MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE. THIS
MODIFICATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SLOW TS 09W AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIVE
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF FAVORABLE SST AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEEDS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN