WDPN32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 18 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, BUT A NEW CENTRAL CONVECTIVE
MASS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM HAS
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS UNDERGONE INCREASED
ORGANIZATIONAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD HOLDING STEADY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED BETWEEN IWO TO AND GUAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. BASED ON THE SHIFT IN UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL STRUGGLE TO ALIGN FOR THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING TO A SLOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL THROUGH
TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG THE
FORECASTED TRACK, BUT THE OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR IN
THE NEAR TERM. BY TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PART OF LUZON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE VERY FAVORABLE SST VALUES PRIOR TO THE APPROACH WILL LEAD TO
A MAXIMUM INTENSITY AROUND TAU 108, POSSIBLY NEAR 100 KNOTS BUT IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS THE TAU 120 INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS
ENCOMPASSES A SLIGHT IMPACT TO THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE INFLOW
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS IMPACTED BY CROSSING OVER LUZON.
THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE INITIAL POSITIONING AND TRACK SPEED UNCERTAINTY, THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THAT TD 09W HAS NOT IMPROVED IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS AS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE LEADING WESTERN EDGE
CONTINUES TO FLARE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A 120356 GMI 36GHZ
MICROWAVE CONCURS WITH THE MSI LOOP AS THE CONVECTION IS POORLY
ORGANIZED AROUND A SLOPPY LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE
POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP WHILE POSITION
FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD REMAIN
AT 30 KNOTS. TD 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TD 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, POSSIBLY REACHING
100 KNOTS BUT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST AS IT FALLS BETWEEN
TAU 96 AND TAU 120. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
WEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) REVEALS DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE BROKEN FORMATIVE
BANDING ALONG THE LEADING WESTERN EDGE HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. A 121205Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS IMPROVED BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED
DESPITE AN OVERALL SMALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNCHANGED, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO THE SOME AMBIGUITY IN THE EIR LOOP WHILE POSITION
FIXES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH (35 KNOTS)
BASED ON THE IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SEEN IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS AS WELL. TS 09W
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ALLOWING FOR INCREASED
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, REACHING 95 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING, THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (RAMMASUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS BROKEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE. THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE LLCC IS BASED ON A
POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A RECENT 121711Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAIN-
TAINED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, BUT KNES
AND RJTD WERE INDICATING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM AS THE CONVECTION
TEMPORARILY WEAKENED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN UNCHANGED, MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAKLY
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 09W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS
ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ENTRENCHED STR. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. NEAR TAU 72, VWS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND OUTFLOW IMPROVE, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER
EASTERN CHINA, WHICH WILL MODIFY THE STR, LEADING TO A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARDS LUZON. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH INCREASED OUTFLOW WILL LEAD TO A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, REACHING 95 KNOTS
BEFORE LANDFALL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
DUE TO TIMING OF FORECAST POSITIONS AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WITH
LUZON. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TERRAIN OF LUZON WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BETWEEN TAU
96 AND TAU 108 THERE WILL BE FURTHER WEAKENING TO AS LOW AS 65 KNOTS
BUT BY TAU 120 THE ENVIRONMENT, IN ASSOCIATION WITH MODEL GUIDANCE,
INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM TO 75
KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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