1412号台风“娜基莉”官方机构预报专帖

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-7-29 09:10

菲律宾以东海面热带扰动96W，此前已3次被JTWC发布TCFA，也被3次取消TCFA。目前系统具备季风低压性质，尺度庞大，气压较低，外围风力较中心附近最大风力要强。

JMA于2014年7月29日凌晨对此TD系统发出GW

本站相关追击分析帖：《土潤溽暑雙颱現，大雨時行一壺漿——1411、1412號颱風追擊帖》

熱帯低気圧
平成26年07月29日07時10分発表
<29日06時の実況>
大きさ       -
強さ       -
      熱帯低気圧
存在地域       フィリピンの東
中心位置       北緯 18度10分(18.2度)
      東経 131度40分(131.7度)
進行方向、速さ       西北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧       998hPa
最大風速       15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速       23m/s(45kt)
<30日06時の予報>
強さ       -
存在地域       フィリピンの東
予報円の中心       北緯 20度00分(20.0度)
      東経 130度00分(130.0度)
進行方向、速さ       北西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧       994hPa
最大風速       18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速       25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径       220km(120NM)

拓跋太子 · 发表于 2014-7-29 13:46

又要来福建逛街了么？

li0627 · 发表于 2014-7-29 14:55

第一次看到CMA无报文直接出预报图

li0627 · 发表于 2014-7-29 15:21

** WTPQ20 RJTD 290600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  290600UTC 18.3N 130.1E POOR
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  300600UTC 19.1N 127.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE  W 10KT
PRES  994HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-7-29 18:00

时间：       29 日 17 时
中心位置：       北纬18.6度、东经130.6度
强度等级：       热带低压
最大风力：       7级，15 米/秒（约 54 公里/时）
中心气压：       998 hPa
参考位置：       距离浙江省宁波市象山县东南方向1500公里的西北太平洋洋面上。
预报结论：       热带低压将以每小时15公里的速度向西北方向移动，
（下次更新时间为29日20时10分）

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 290900
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 290900 UTC
00HR 18.6N 130.6E 998HPA 15M/S
MOVE NW 15KM/H
P+12HR 20.8N 129.5E 998HPA 15M/S
P+24HR 22.8N 128.3E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

目前，在我国台湾东南洋面上有一个热带低压活动，今天（29日）下午5点钟其中心位于浙江省象山县东南方大约1500公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬18.6度、东经130.6度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计，该热带低压中心将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐加强，将于未来24小时内发展为台风（热带风暴级）。29日20时至30日20时，该低压对我国近海海域无影响。

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-7-29 21:03

本帖最后由 yz0330 于 2014-7-29 21:53 编辑

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 291200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD NAMELESS 02 INITIAL TIME 291200 UTC
00HR 18.6N 130.5E 998HPA 15M/S
MOVE NNW 20KM/H
P+12HR 20.7N 129.3E 996HPA 16M/S
P+24HR 22.7N 128.0E 995HPA 18M/S=
NNNN

将臣 · 发表于 2014-7-30 04:08

台風第12号 (ナクリー)
平成26年07月30日04時30分発表


<30日03時の実況>
大きさ	-
強さ	-
存在地域	フィリピンの東
中心位置	北緯 18度35分(18.6度)
	東経 129度30分(129.5度)
進行方向、速さ	西北西ゆっくり
中心気圧	994hPa
最大風速	18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速	25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域	南側 600km(325NM)
	北側 330km(180NM)

<31日03時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	沖縄の南
予報円の中心	北緯 21度30分(21.5度)
	東経 126度50分(126.8度)
進行方向、速さ	北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	990hPa
中心付近の最大風速	20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速	30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径	160km(85NM)

<01日03時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	沖縄の南
予報円の中心	北緯 24度10分(24.2度)
	東経 125度05分(125.1度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧	985hPa
中心付近の最大風速	23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径	300km(160NM)

<02日03時の予報>
強さ	-
存在地域	東シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯 28度10分(28.2度)
	東経 123度05分(123.1度)
進行方向、速さ	北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧	985hPa
中心付近の最大風速	23m/s(45kt)
最大瞬間風速	35m/s(65kt)
予報円の半径	390km(210NM)

<03日03時の予報>
存在地域	東シナ海
予報円の中心	北緯 32度00分(32.0度)
	東経 122度10分(122.2度)
進行方向、速さ	北 20km/h(10kt)
予報円の半径	520km(280NM)

<04日03時の予報>
存在地域	黄海
予報円の中心	北緯 34度00分(34.0度)
	東経 121度50分(121.8度)
進行方向、速さ	北ゆっくり
予報円の半径	700km(375NM)

yz0330 · 发表于 2014-7-30 16:10

96W.NAKRI.TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 292300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 131.1E TO 25.3N 126.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.9N 130.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
132.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 130.5E, APPROXIMATELY 416NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN
OLDER ASCAT 291200Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF 30 TO
40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE (ALMOST 700 NM IN DIAMETER), FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTION AND CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302300Z.
//
NNNN

海绵宝宝 · 发表于 2014-7-30 22:52

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 301200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS NAKRI 1412 (1412) INITIAL TIME 301200 UTC
00HR 22.0N 128.6E 995HPA 18M/S
30KTS WINDS 280KM NORTHEAST
300KM SOUTHEAST
400KM SOUTHWEST
280KM NORTHWEST
MOVE NNW 22KM/H
P+12HR 24.2N 127.6E 992HPA 20M/S
P+24HR 26.3N 126.6E 988HPA 23M/S
P+36HR 28.5N 125.4E 980HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 30.1N 124.0E 970HPA 33M/S
P+60HR 31.8N 122.5E 975HPA 30M/S
P+72HR 33.0N 121.8E 988HPA 23M/S
P+96HR 34.1N 121.2E 995HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 35.4N 120.8E 998HPA 15M/S=
NNNN

将臣 · 发表于 2014-7-31 11:14

WTPN21 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292251Z JUL 14//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 292300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.4N 128.3E TO 31.1N 124.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
302032Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N
128.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9N
130.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE
STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EXTENDED PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, CENTRAL WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
AN OLDER ASCAT PASS AT 301237Z MISSED THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE
DEPRESSION, BUT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE WIND SPEEDS AGREE
WITH THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER AND IS CREATING A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 992 MB. BASED ON
A SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF THE STRONGER PERIPHERY WINDS TOWARD THE
CENTER BUT A LACK DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312300Z.//
NNNN

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[官方预报] 1412号台风“娜基莉”官方机构预报专帖

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